Jobs report may be the last for a while: What this means for mortgage borrowers

Because of the government shutdown, which started at midnight on Oct. 1, the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, a key indicator for the Fed and other analysts, wasn't published this week after all. 

This data blackout will make predicting economic changes harder, and this could create volatility for home buyers and investors.

Without BLS data, economists will depend more on private data, including the September ADP report.

How a data blackout affects mortgage markets

If the economy were an airplane, government economic data would be its instrument panel. This data helps the Fed, and other economists, anticipate future economic performance and make changes that avoid turbulence. 

BLS jobs data, along with the Consumer Price Index, which reflects inflation, are key indicators for future economic performance.

The Fed’s decisions about the economy, in turn, affect the mortgage rates new borrowers pay.

Ultimately, this affects how much home buyers can afford to spend on housing which affects whether sellers want to put their houses on the market. 

Why the BLS jobs report won’t be released

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) depends on Congressional funding which stopped flowing when the government shut down at midnight Oct. 1. This means Friday's September jobs report wasn't published as planned. 

The last time a shutdown delayed a monthly jobs report was back in 2013.

What data sources are still available

This federal data blackout puts more pressure on non-government economic indicators like the ADP’s private payroll report which came out on Sept. 30.

The ADP report showed companies cut more than 32,000 jobs in September, creating the biggest reduction in workforce since March of 2023. These losses extend across several segments of the economy.

The leisure and hospitality industry lost 19,000 jobs, which isn’t a huge surprise as the busy summer tourism season closed in September. What was more surprising was the 13,000 job losses in professional and business services and the 7,000 losses in trade, transportation, and utilities.

Negative trends in final jobs report could resonate longer

The ADP report paints a troubling picture for the labor market. Many economists expected modest job gains in September, yet private payrolls show their biggest drop in over two years. 

Since this could be the final jobs data economists will see for months, it could weigh more heavily than usual as policymakers adjust the economy’s base interest rates. 

This weakening jobs data could strengthen the case for lower interest rates when the Fed meets again in December. 

More details about the ADP jobs report 

ADP extrapolates jobs data from payroll reports. Let’s break down the job losses from the September ADP report. 

Job gains in the report:

• Education and health services: +33,000 (thanks to school reopenings and healthcare's steady growth)

Job losses in the report:

• Leisure and hospitality: -19,000 (summer season's end)
• Other services: -16,000
• Professional and business services: -13,000
• Trade, transportation and utilities: -7,000
• Construction: -5,000
• Manufacturing: -2,000

Looking for the silver lining?

Overall, wages for people who kept jobs grew at 4.5% annually despite these job losses.

Mortgage borrowers may face delays and rate volatility

As a lender, we interpret all this data, along with our lack of data, through the lens of mortgage borrowers: people shopping for a home or people in the middle of closing a mortgage.

Along with the federal data blackout, other federal services will also be on hold, potentially delaying closing day for active applicants. 

We’ll watch developments closely and do our best to help borrowers keep their home buying dreams moving forward.

FAQs about government data blackout

How does the jobs report impact mortgage rates? 

Lack of jobs data can influence mortgage rates. Strong employment data typically leads to higher rates as it suggests economic growth, while weaker job numbers may result in lower rates. However, during a government shutdown, the lack of official data can cause increased volatility in mortgage rates.

What happens if I lose my job while getting a mortgage? 

Losing a job while applying for a loan is a big problem. Lenders can’t approve loans unless borrowers have the income to repay the loan. Borrowers who lose their job after a loan closes may be able to use mortgage unemployment insurance to cover payments temporarily. Communicate with your lender immediately if you face job loss.

What alternative data sources are available during a government shutdown? 

During a government shutdown, when official Bureau of Labor Statistics reports go dark, other data sources carry more weight. These include private reports like ADP payroll data, as well as information from job search websites like Indeed. The Federal Reserve also produces some economic data

How does the Fed, itself, keep operating in a shutdown?

The Federal Reserve operates independently of Congress and the President, so it can continue working during a government shutdown.

Advice to buyers: Don't wait

Weak economic data often leads to rate cuts which could help borrowers who can keep their loans on track save money. Lower rates could also inspire more sellers to put their homes on the market since lower rates can increase buyer budgets.

That said, borrowers who have a rate they like should not wait to see if rates go lower.

It’s better to lock now and get ahead of the processing bottleneck that could be coming as federally funded services stall. 

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